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Journal of Hepatology

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of Hepatology's content profile, based on 21 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Macrophage-CD8+ T Cell Spatial Coupling Defines an Innate-Adaptive Injury Niche in Human Checkpoint Inhibitor Hepatotoxicity

Bogdanov, J. M.; Zhao, N.; Alavifard, H.; Kleiner, D. E.; Fontana, R. J.; Stolz, A. A.; Merchant, A.; Sexton, J. Z.; Dara, L.

2026-08-21 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.08.18.26360744 medRxiv
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Background & Aims: Immune-mediated liver injury from immune checkpoint inhibitors (ILICI) is a major immune-related adverse event that limits cancer immunotherapy, yet its tissue-level immunobiology is poorly defined and its management is largely extrapolated from autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). We previously identified a tri-cellular CD8+ T cell-macrophage-hepatocyte injury niche in a murine model of ILICI; here, we tested whether this niche is recapitulated in human disease. Methods: We applied imaging mass cytometry with a 32-marker panel to liver biopsies from patients with ILICI (n = 12), AIH as a disease comparator (n = 14), and healthy controls (n = 2), profiling approximately 297,000 single cells across 144 regions of interest with spatially resolved detection of apoptosis (cleaved caspase-3, cC3) and pyroptosis (cleaved gasdermin D, cGSDMD). Results: We detected histiocyte-rich granulomas in ILICI consisting of macrophages and CD8+ T cells, including activated memory-effector subsets. Permutation-based spatial analysis identified CD8+ T cell-macrophage co-localization as the most frequent significant interaction in ILICI, organizing into integrated innate-adaptive cellular neighborhoods that concentrated cC3- and cGSDMD-positive cells. Descriptively, this contrasted with AIH, in which immune cells and stroma were more spatially compartmentalized. CD8+ T-cell and macrophage densities correlated with Ishak necroinflammation scores, jaundice, and granuloma formation. Conclusions: These findings provide the first single-cell spatial proteomic characterization of human ILICI in situ; they recapitulate the tri-cellular CD8-macrophage-hepatocyte niche we previously defined in a murine model and characterize ILICI as a spatially organized innate-adaptive inflammatory process, nominating myeloid signaling and CD8-macrophage interactions as candidate liver-directed targets to uncouple hepatotoxicity from anti-tumor immunity.

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Identification of Proliferation-Specific Dependencies for Therapeutic Targeting of Liver Cancer

Castoldi, M.

2026-07-09 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.07.09.737474 medRxiv
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Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide despite recent therapeutic advances, driven in part by its marked etiological and molecular heterogeneity and the lack of broadly effective therapeutic targets. Identifying conserved tumor dependencies shared across distinct etiological backgrounds may provide new opportunities for targeted therapy. Here, we developed an integrative computational framework to systematically integrate transcriptomic, functional genomics, and clinical datasets for the identification and prioritization of candidate tumor dependency genes in liver cancer. We reanalyzed transcriptomic data from murine models of liver cancer driven by genotoxic (DEN), oncogenic (c-Myc), and inflammatory (lymphotoxin) stimuli, identifying more than 380 genes consistently upregulated across all tumor models. Functional enrichment analysis revealed a strong overrepresentation of cell cycle-related pathways and liver cancer signatures. Integration with DepMap dependency datasets identified 26 genes with strong dependency scores. Candidate genes were further prioritized by comparing their expression across models of liver regeneration, chronic liver injury, and liver cancer. Analysis of the TCGA-LIHC cohort confirmed significant overexpression of all 26 genes in human HCC, with high expression associated with poor patient survival. Together, these findings establish an integrative framework for identifying conserved tumor dependencies, providing a prioritized set of proliferation-associated genes for functional evaluation as therapeutic targets in HCC.

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Hepatic stellate cell FXR signaling regulates context-dependent functions in liver homeostasis and fibrosis.

Vinod, M.; Zummo, F.-P.; Gheeraert, C.; Gouda, Z.; Courquet, S.; Dorchies, E.; Thuret, L.; Lapage, M.; Guille, L.; Bobowski-Gerard, M.; Pourpe, C.; Launay, V.; Derhoudi, M.; Bonnefond, A.; Eberle, D.; Haas, J.; Dubois-Chevalier, J.; Eeckhoute, J.; Lestavel, S.; Staels, B.; Lefebvre, P.; Berthier, A.

2026-08-31 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.08.29.747537 medRxiv
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Nuclear bile acid (BA) signaling plays a central role in liver homeostasis and represents a major therapeutic axis in fibrotic liver diseases. The farnesoid X receptor (FXR), a master nuclear effector of BA signaling, is expressed in several liver-resident cell types, suggesting that it may regulate distinct biological programs beyond the hepatocyte (HC) compartment. Using complementary pharmacological, genetic, and computational approaches across in vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo models of mouse and human origin, we investigated the role of hepatic stellate cell (HSC) FXR (FXRHSC) in both unchallenged and injured livers, which has remained controversial. FXR is robustly expressed in both HCs and HSCs with distinct isoform distributions, and these isoforms exhibited differential capacities to activate gene expression in an HSC context. We found that the potent selective FXR agonist tropifexor triggers a transcriptional program reminiscent of that observed after partial hepatectomy and associated with HC proliferation. This cell cycle-related response was also observed in HSCs and did not require intestinal FXR expression. An HSC-specific response to tropifexor was observed for several genes, including members of the glutathione-S-transferase (GST) family or Scube1. FXRHSC was sufficient to observe the anti-fibrotic effects of tropifexor in precision-cut liver slices, an ex-vivo model of fibrosis. Finally, we identified the regulation of the chemerin-encoding gene Rarres2 as a relevant example of FXRHSC-dependent control of hepatic intercellular communication. Together, these findings identify FXRHSC as an important contributor to hepatic adaptation and therapeutic response to BA analogs and confirmed HSCs as a significant site of nuclear bile acid signaling in liver biology.

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The interaction between chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in a diverse central London population

Martyn, E.; Mullender, C.; Ogunnaike, S.; Kemper, A.; Ghosh, I.; Peppa, D.; Tsochatzis, E.; Gilson, R.; Flanagan, S.; Copas, A.; MacDonald, D.; Arenas-Pinto, A.; Matthews, P. C.

2026-06-17 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.15.26355674 medRxiv
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Introduction: The overlap between chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is an emerging global health challenge. We investigated the impact of MASLD and metabolic comorbidity in a diverse London viral hepatitis clinic. Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional study (May 2018-Feb 2024) included adults with CHB having controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) measurements. MASLD was defined as CAP >264 dB/m plus [&ge;]1 cardiometabolic factor (CMF). We used univariable and multivariable models to examine MASLD's relationship with liver stiffness and hepatitis B viral load (HBV VL). Results: Among 323 individuals (67% male, median age 36), most were from Black (35%) or non-white British/Irish (29%) backgrounds. Overall, 64% had [&ge;]1 CMF, and 20% had MASLD. The CHB/MASLD group was significantly older (median 43 vs 35 years, p<0.001) with higher median alanine transaminase (35 vs 30 IU/L, p=0.02) and liver stiffness (5.3 vs 4.7 kPa, p<0.001). Following adjustment for covariates, MASLD remained significantly associated with liver stiffness ({beta} = 0.48 kPa, p=0.03). While univariable analysis showed significantly lower HBV VL in people with MASLD (median 54 vs 417 IU/ml, p=0.004), adjusted multivariable analysis revealed no significant association between MASLD and log10 HBV VL (p=0.2). Conclusions: Although adjusted analysis does not support an independent association between MASLD and HBV VL, the data highlight a substantial cardiometabolic burden in this CHB population and clearly link MASLD to more severe liver disease. Holistic consideration of metabolic comorbidities is crucial in comprehensive CHB management.

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Nicotinamide N-methyltransferase couples inflammation and epigenetic remodelling to hepatic fibrosis

Sukhanava, S.; Valina Allo, P.; He, Y.; Chen, L.; Zhu, Y.; Youhanna, S.; Garcia Irigoyen, O.; Li, Q.; Ellis, E.; Lauschke, V. M.; Treuter, E.; Fan, R.

2026-07-30 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.07.30.740978 medRxiv
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Background & aimsChronic inflammation is a key driver of progression from benign steatosis to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and liver fibrosis. The molecular mechanisms coupling inflammatory cytokine signaling to altered hepatocyte remodeling remain incompletely understood. Here, we report that nicotinamide N-methyltransferase (NNMT) is induced by specific inflammatory cytokines in hepatocytes and acts as a key hub to connect inflammation with fibrotic liver remodeling. Approach & resultsTranscriptomic profiling of primary human hepatocytes and human hepatoma cell lines identified NNMT as a selective downstream target of IL-1{beta} and IL-6, but not of TNF. Genetic silencing of NNMT markedly attenuated cytokine-induced inflammatory and fibrotic gene expression programs and partially reversed IL-6-mediated sensitization of IL-1{beta} responses. Integration of RNA-seq with ChIP-seq, CUT&Tag, and ATAC-seq revealed that inflammatory cytokines remodel the hepatocyte epigenome through coordinated changes in histone modifications. NNMT overexpression promoted selective remodeling of H3K4me2 chromatin landscapes, accompanied by activation of fibrosis-associated transcriptional programs. Nicotinamide supplementation partially suppressed inflammatory gene expression, supporting a role of NNMT-dependent NAD+ metabolism in this process. Importantly, cytokine-induced NNMT expression and its associated transcriptional program were conserved in primary human hepatocytes and 3D liver microtissues. ConclusionsNNMT functions as an inflammatory cytokine-inducible metabolic- epigenetic integrator that links IL-1{beta} and IL-6 signaling to chromatin remodeling and inflammatory transcriptional reprogramming in hepatocytes. These findings identify NNMT as a key regulator of inflammatory and profibrotic responses during MASLD progression and highlight NNMT as a potential therapeutic target for limiting liver inflammation and fibrosis. Impact and ImplicationsThis study identifies NNMT as a previously unrecognized metabolic-epigenetic integrator that selectively links IL-1{beta} and IL-6 signaling to chromatin remodeling and inflammatory transcriptional reprogramming in hepatocytes. Our findings establish a non-canonical mechanistic framework by which inflammatory cytokines drive profibrotic gene expression during MASLD progression through. By uncovering NNMT as a critical mediator of inflammatory-epigenetic crosstalk, this work broadens our understanding of hepatocyte-intrinsic mechanisms underlying liver fibrosis and highlights NNMT as a promising therapeutic target for preventing the transition from steatosis to progressive MASH and fibrosis. HighlightsO_LINNMT is selectively induced by IL-1{beta} and IL-6 in hepatocytes. C_LIO_LINNMT controls fibrogenic gene expression modules. C_LIO_LIIL-6 amplifies IL-1{beta} responses through an NNMT-dependent mechanism. C_LIO_LINNMT links inflammatory signaling to epigenetic remodeling in MASLD. C_LI

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Patient-Derived Liver Cancer Organoids Reflect Tumor Biology and Their Growth Phenotype Correlates with Clinical Outcomes

Kim, Y. S.; Go, Y.-H.; Kim, H. S.; Seo, J.; Kim, D. o.; Hwang, D.-Y.; Yang, W.; Lim, J. H.

2026-08-04 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.08.02.742347 medRxiv
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Liver cancer remains a major global health burden with high mortality and limited treatment response prediction tools. Patient-derived cancer organoids have emerged as promising preclinical models that recapitulate tumor heterogeneity; however, the biological significance of morphological diversity within established organoids remains poorly characterized in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this exploratory study, we investigated whether distinct organoid growth phenotypes reflect underlying tumor biology and correlate with clinical outcomes. We established liver cancer organoids from resected tumor tissues of 27 patients and analyzed their clinical, histological, and genomic characteristics. Organoids were classified morphologically into cystic and solid types. Whole exome sequencing (WES) was conducted on six matched tumor-organoid pairs to assess genomic fidelity. Associations between organoid establishment, growth characteristics, and clinical parameters were statistically evaluated. Progression-free survival (PFS) was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and univariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Organoids were successfully established in 13 of 27 cases (48.1%). Solid-type organoids were significantly associated with shorter PFS compared to cystic types (HR = 13.91; p = 0.0039, log-rank test). Organoid establishment was more frequent in older patients (>70 years), those with HBV infection, and tumors with positive {beta}-catenin expression. WES analysis demonstrated high concordance in somatic mutation profiles and variant allele frequency distributions between tissues and corresponding organoids. In univariate Cox regression, organoid growth pattern (solid vs. cystic) showed a significant association with PFS within this exploratory cohort (p = 0.0207). Patient-derived liver cancer organoids preserved the genomic and histopathological features of the original tumors. Notably, solid morphology was associated with shorter PFS, suggesting that organoid growth phenotype may serve as a supplementary indicator of tumor biological behavior in HCC. Given the modest cohort size and the absence of multivariate analysis, these preliminary findings should be interpreted with caution and warrant further large-scale validation.

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IL-32 is a stress-responsive node locked in a noncanonical NF-κB inflammatory loop during MASLD to HCC transition

Zhao, L. N.; Kaldis, P.; Andersen, J.

2026-07-22 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.07.21.739717 medRxiv
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BackgroundInterleukin-32 (IL-32) presents a long-standing paradox in liver disease, with markedly elevated expression in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) yet a protective role against hepatic steatosis. The absence of a canonical receptor or defined secretory pathway has obscured its biological function. This study aimed to resolve this paradox by delineating the regulatory mechanisms that govern IL-32 activity during hepatocarcinogenesis. MethodsWe analyzed two in-house prospective cohorts, including a MASLD cohort and a MASLD-associated HCC cohort, integrating matched transcriptomic and metabolomic data. Targeted lipidomics and multi-omics analyses were combined with single-cell and spatial transcriptomics. Key findings were validated using functional assays and gene perturbation models. ResultsWe identified a disease stage-specific transcriptional switch in which noncanonical NF-{kappa}B signaling (NFKB2/RELB) replaces canonical NF-{kappa}B as the primary activator of IL-32, forming an auto-amplifying inflammatory loop. This switch is enabled by FOXO1, which acts as a pioneer factor to maintain chromatin accessibility at IL32 and NF-{kappa}B loci. Functionally, IL-32 is coupled to lipid metabolism through DGAT2; however, this axis becomes uncoupled in HCC, where DGAT2 loss rewires NF-{kappa}B/ERK signaling without recapitulating global metabolic remodeling, thereby sensitizing cells to inflammatory activation. ConclusionsThese findings resolve the functional paradox of IL-32 by revealing a multi-layered regulatory network that reprograms its activity during liver disease progression, and define IL-32 as a context-dependent integrator of metabolic and inflammatory signaling, whose regulatory network is rewired during hepatocarcinogenesis to promote a sustained pro-inflammatory state. HighlightsO_LINoncanonical NF-{kappa}B (NFKB2/RELB) drives a self-amplifying IL-32 loop in HCC. C_LIO_LIFOXO1 licenses this switch by maintaining chromatin accessibility at IL32 and NF-{kappa}B loci. C_LIO_LIIL-32 shifts from a metabolic regulator in MASLD to an inflammatory driver in HCC. C_LI

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Vorapaxar and aripiprazole suppress hepatitis B virus replication through distinct host signaling pathways

Yamashita, A.; Kasai, H.; Aoyagi, H.; Wakae, K.; Kobayashi, K.; Miyajima, A.; Higuchi, Y.; Suemizu, H.; Fukushima, R.; Isogawa, M.; Wakita, T.; Aizaki, H.; Moriishi, K.

2026-08-09 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.08.05.743121 medRxiv
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Background & AimsCurrent nucleos(t)ide analogs efficiently suppress hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication but have limited effects on viral transcription from covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) and integrated HBV DNA. We aimed to identify clinically applicable compounds that directly inhibit HBV transcription by screening FDA-approved drugs. Approach & ResultsScreening of 1,470 FDA-approved compounds using an HBV enhancer I/X promoter reporter system identified vorapaxar and aripiprazole as potent inhibitors of viral promoter activity. Both compounds suppressed HBV replication in HBV-producing cells, HBV-infected HepG2-hNTCP cells, and primary human hepatocytes. Aripiprazole reduced hepatocyte nuclear factor 4 (HNF4) protein levels through an ERK/JNK-dependent pathway and inhibited HBV core promoter activity, whereas vorapaxar acted independently of HNF4. Both compounds suppressed enhancer I/X promoter activity through inhibition of STAT3 signaling. Vorapaxar inhibited PAR-1-mediated SRC, EGFR, and STAT3 activation, while aripiprazole suppressed SRC-STAT3 signaling independently of EGFR. PAR-1 activation enhanced HBV transcription, whereas PAR-1 knockdown reduced promoter activity and viral RNA expression. Both compounds also reduced HBV replication in human liver chimeric mice at clinically relevant exposure levels without apparent severe toxicity. ConclusionsVorapaxar and aripiprazole suppress HBV transcription and replication through distinct host signaling pathways. These findings identify PAR-1-STAT3 signaling as a previously unrecognized regulator of HBV transcription and suggest that host-targeting approaches may complement current therapies by suppressing viral gene expression from both cccDNA and integrated HBV DNA. Impact and implicationsCurrent nucleos(t)ide analogues effectively suppress HBV reverse transcription but have limited effects on viral transcription from cccDNA and integrated HBV DNA, highlighting the need for therapies targeting viral gene expression. We identify PAR-1- STAT3 signaling as a previously unrecognized regulator of HBV transcription and demonstrate that two clinically approved drugs, vorapaxar and aripiprazole, suppress HBV replication through distinct host signaling pathways. These findings are relevant to researchers developing host-targeting antivirals and to clinicians seeking complementary therapeutic strategies beyond current nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. Although further clinical validation and combination studies are required, our results provide a rationale for repurposing approved drugs and for developing transcription-targeting therapies that may complement existing treatments for chronic hepatitis B. HighlightsO_LIVorapaxar and aripiprazole suppress HBV through distinct host pathways. C_LIO_LIBoth drugs inhibit HBV replication in vitro and in humanized liver mice. C_LIO_LIPAR-1 inhibition reduces HBV transcription by blocking SRC/EGFR/STAT3 signaling. C_LIO_LIPAR-1-STAT3 signaling is a novel regulator of HBV transcription. C_LIO_LIHost-targeting antiviral therapy complements current HBV treatment. C_LI

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IL-21-producing peripheral helper T cells associate with autoimmune bile duct injury in biliary atresia

Liu, M.; Meng, W.; Chen, Y.; Wu, S.; Qian, M.; Chen, D.; Zhang, J.; Dong, J.; Yang, Y.; Jiang, J.; Li, T.; Shi, Q.; Gu, X.; Sun, S.; Qiu, W.; Dong, R.; Zhang, X.; Zheng, S.; Chen, G.; Liu, Y.

2026-07-13 immunology 10.64898/2026.07.08.736942 medRxiv
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BackgroundBiliary atresia (BA) is a severe neonatal liver disease characterized by progressive fibrosis and bile duct obliteration. ObjectiveAlthough immune dysregulation is implicated in the pathogenesis of BA, the specific mechanisms driving bile duct injury remain incompletely understood. This study aimed to characterize tertiary lymphoid structures (TLSs) within extrahepatic biliary remnants (EBRs), identify their cellular mediators, and evaluate the therapeutic potential of targeting IL-21 receptor signaling. DesignWe performed integrated bulk RNA sequencing, single-cell RNA sequencing, spatial transcriptomics, multiplex immunohistochemistry, and flow cytometry on clinical samples from BA patients and non-BA cholestatic controls. TLS maturation was assessed by CD23 immunohistochemistry in EBRs from 148 BA patients and correlated with clinical parameters. Anti-IL-21R antibody treatment was evaluated in a rhesus rotavirus-induced BA mouse model, with treatment initiated on day 4 post-infection. ResultsTLSs were identified in BA EBRs with significantly higher prevalence than in matched liver tissues. Mature TLSs containing CD23 germinal centers were associated with elevated serum matrix metalloproteinase-7, more advanced hepatic fibrosis, and localized autoantibody deposition on injured bile ducts. Single-cell profiling revealed expanded CD4+ T peripheral helper (Tph) cells expressing IL-21 and CXCL13 within TLS-containing EBRs. Tph cells were enriched in peripheral blood of BA patients compared to non-BA cholestatic controls (P = 0.0025), and serum IL-21 was significantly elevated (P < 0.0001). Post-infection IL-21R blockade in the mouse model reduced jaundice incidence, improved weight gain, prevented extrahepatic biliary obstruction, and significantly improved long-term survival. ConclusionTLSs in BA extrahepatic biliary remnants harbor expanded Tph cells associated with IL-21-mediated B cell activation and bile duct injury. IL-21R blockade ameliorated disease in a murine BA model, identifying the IL-21/IL-21R axis as a potential therapeutic target warranting further investigation. Key MessagesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSImmune dysregulation contributes to biliary atresia (BA), with documented lymphocyte infiltration and defective B cell tolerance. However, the cellular mechanisms linking local immune activation to bile duct injury are unclear, and the roles of organized lymphoid structures and specific CD4 T cell subsets in orchestrating local humoral responses have not been characterized. What this study addsThis study demonstrates that mature tertiary lymphoid structures in extrahepatic biliary remnants are associated with disease severity markers and localized bile duct injury in BA. We identify T peripheral helper cells as an expanded IL-21-producing CD4 T cell population within these structures, and show that post-infection IL-21 receptor blockade prevents biliary obstruction and improves survival in a murine BA model. How this study might affect research, practice or policyThese findings identify the IL-21/IL-21R signaling axis as a candidate therapeutic target in BA warranting further preclinical and translational investigation. TLS maturation status in biliary remnants and serum autoantibody levels may serve as potential biomarkers of disease severity, meriting prospective evaluation in clinical cohorts.

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Z-AAT impairs organelle homeostasis and reduces adaptive response to lipids in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency models

Gil-Martin, S.; Matamala, N.; Hagen-Doval, O.; Bruno, E.; Gomez-Mariano, G.; Benitez-Buelga, C.; Barrero, M.; Ramos del Saz, S.; Fernandez-Prieto, M.; Martinez, S.; Manosalva, J.; Megias, D.; Docando, F.; Terron, M. C.; Alonso, J.; Olveira, A.; Romero, M.; Calle, M.; Rodriguez-Hermosa, J. L.; Janciauskiene, S.; Perez-Luz, S.; Martinez-Delgado, B.

2026-08-17 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.08.14.744823 medRxiv
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Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) caused by the Z variant leads to hepatic accumulation of misfolded AAT polymers and liver disease. Although proteotoxic stress is well established, its impact on lipid metabolism, mitochondrial function, and organelle homeostasis remains incompletely understood. The effects of Z-AAT accumulation were investigated in Z-HepG2 cells and 3D patient-derived ZZ hepatic organoids through protein aggregation, lipid storage, mitochondrial structure and function, peroxisomal dynamics, and comprehensive transcriptomic and proteomic analyses. Z-AAT expression led to intracellular polymer accumulation and reduced secretion, together with lipid accumulation, mitochondrial structural abnormalities, increased mitochondrial number but impaired respiratory capacity. Metabolic profiling revealed reduced oxidative phosphorylation and partial reliance on glucose metabolism. Peroxisomes displayed increased mass, consistent with altered lipid handling. Multi-omics analysis demonstrated widespread transcriptional and proteomic reprogramming related to protein synthesis, lipid metabolism, and mitochondrial function. Proteomic analysis confirmed proteotoxic stress-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, impaired lipid handling, and activation of stress response, inflammatory and vesicular trafficking pathways. Importantly, lipid supplementation elicited adaptive mitochondrial transcriptional responses in control cells, whereas Z-HepG2 cells showed a blunted response to lipid challenge. In conclusion, Z-AAT accumulation disrupts hepatic lipid processing and impaired mitochondrial and peroxisomal homeostasis, producing diminished metabolic flexibility likely contributing to AATD-associated liver disease.

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Epidemiology, temporal trends, and fibrosis risk stratification in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in UK primary care: a population-based cohort and nested case-control study

Huang, H.-T.; Hewitt, M.; Li, W.; Temperley, L.; Sattar, N.; Alazawi, W.

2026-07-16 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358136 medRxiv
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Background: We sought to determine the changing prevalence, incidence, and temporal trends in real-world, recorded diagnoses of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and assess availability of fibrosis risk stratification following awareness campaigns and guideline updates over the last decade. Methods: This population-based cohort study identified MASLD diagnoses made between 2003 to 2022 in the UK primary-care Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) to estimate prevalence and incidence. A nested case-control analysis, utilising 1:4 age-, sex-, and general practice-matched controls, assessed clinical characteristics, availability of Fibrosis-4 (Fib-4) components, and its temporal trend pre- and post-2015. Findings: 11.7 million individuals were active in CPRD in 2022. 365,797 comprised the study cohort of people with a MASLD diagnosis (matched to 1,460,288 controls). From 2012-2022, recorded MASLD prevalence rose from 0.52% [N=51,028] to 2.42% [N=283,762] (p<0.001); recorded incidence doubled from 1.60 to 3.31 per 1000 person-years (p<0.001). People with MASLD diagnosis had a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes (21.0% [N=76,640] vs 7.7% [N=112,812]) and hypertension (35.3% [N=129,156] vs 18.7% [N=273,502]). People of South Asian ethnicity were overrepresented in MASLD cohort but had the lowest availability of Fib-4 components (14.6% [N=4,467]; adjusted odds ratio 0.67, 95% CI: 0.65-0.70, vs White). Overall, Fib-4 availability increased pre- to post-2015 (4.3% [N=4,945] to 22.8% [N=56,634]). Among those with a calculable score, fewer South Asian individuals had indeterminate/high risk (18.6% [N=833] vs 35.3% [N=15,115] in White individuals, p<0.001). Interpretation: Recorded MASLD prevalence has increased 5-fold in a decade, yet a diagnostic gap persists. Fibrosis risk stratification has improved, but remains low and is potentially inequitable for people of South Asian ethnicity. Funding: Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA; Barts Charity. Keywords: Epidemiology, Real-world data, Real-world evidence, MASLD, Primary Care

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A lenvatinib-resistance-derived transcriptional program identifies metabolic identity remodeling associated with unfavorable survival in hepatocellular carcinoma

Zheng, L.; Gan, L.

2026-08-24 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.08.21.746217 medRxiv
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Background: Metabolic adaptation is a recognized feature of therapeutic resistance in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but it is unclear whether transcriptional states exposed during acquired resistance are restricted to drug adaptation or reflect broader aggressive tumor biology. We tested whether metabolic programs derived from a lenvatinib-resistance model identify a clinically adverse transcriptional state in an independent HCC patient cohort. Methods: The discovery framework was based on GSE186191, comprising parental and acquired lenvatinib-resistant Hep3B and Huh7 cells. A pre-specified 33-gene lipid-source ledger served as a biological anchor, and three discovery-derived programs, MYC Targets V2, mTORC1 Signaling, and Fatty Acid Metabolism, were frozen before patient-level evaluation. In TCGA-LIHC, single-sample enrichment scores for the three programs were population-standardized and summed to generate an integrated metabolic score. Overall survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier and Cox analyses. Whole-transcriptome differences between high- and low-score tumors were characterized by preranked gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). Results: The survival cohort comprised 282 patients (118 deaths), with 141 patients in each median-defined score group. High-score patients had shorter overall survival (log-rank P=0.000419). The continuous score was associated with mortality in univariable analysis (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.33-2.61; P=0.000293) and in the frozen model adjusted for age, sex, and stage indicators (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.35-2.76; P=0.000350; n=277). In 327 primary tumors, Fatty Acid Metabolism was strongly depleted in high-score tumors (NES -2.06; FDR<0.001). MYC Targets V2 (NES 1.18; FDR=0.232) and mTORC1 Signaling (NES 1.11; FDR=0.229) showed positive directional enrichment without FDR significance. Conclusions: A lenvatinib-resistance-derived transcriptional program is associated with an adverse-survival state in HCC. The strongest patient-level pathway feature is depletion of canonical fatty-acid metabolism, accompanied by directional MYC/mTORC1 features rather than statistically established pathway activation. These findings support a testable model of metabolic identity remodeling but do not establish causality or clinical prediction of lenvatinib response.

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The Fontan EV Score: A Circulating Extracellular Vesicle-Based Risk Stratification Tool for Fontan-Associated Liver Disease

Takaesu, F.; Li, X.; Kievert, J.; Zhou, A.; Kemper, S.; Yuhara, S.; Hussain, S.; Watanabe, T.; Matsuda, J.; Taha, F.; Morrison, A.; Nelson, K.; Zucco, J.; Naguib, A.; McKee, C.; Hill, J.; Carrillo, S. A.; Breuer, C. K.; Kelly, J. M.; Brigstock, D.; Davis, M.

2026-08-04 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.07.31.742169 medRxiv
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BackgroundFontan-associated liver disease (FALD) is a universal complication of the Fontan palliation characterized by chronic congestion and progressive hepatic fibrosis. Current diagnostics rely on invasive biopsies or non-specific biochemical and imaging biomarkers that fail to capture early fibrogenesis, creating a critical need for non-invasive biomarkers to stratify disease severity. MethodsWe utilized a translational ovine Fontan model (n = 19) to investigate circulating serum extracellular vesicles (sEVs) as reporters of hepatic pathology. Longitudinal serum samples paired with liver elastography were collected, and sEVs were subjected to multi-omic profiling including small RNA sequencing and proteomics. Regularized regression was used to identify transcriptomic predictors, which were integrated with time post-surgery into an ordinal logistic regression framework to construct the Fontan EV Score (FES). Model performance was evaluated on a held-out test cohort and benchmarked against established serological fibrosis indices. To validate the biological relevance of the FES panel, TGF-{beta}-treated human liver organoids were generated and scored miRNA expression was assessed. ResultsThe sEV proteome exhibited robust separation by surgical physiology, while the small RNA cargo was primarily stratified by fibrotic status. Bioinformatic analysis confirmed a high hepatic origin for these transcripts and identified enrichment of inflammatory pathways including Toll-like receptor and Interleukin-17 cascades in fibrotic subjects. The FES, incorporating time post-surgery and eleven small RNA biomarkers, demonstrated high predictive accuracy in the independent testing cohort with an AUC of 0.876 for moderate and 0.963 for severe fibrosis, substantially outperforming APRI (AUC = 0.618) and FIB-4 (AUC = 0.731). In TGF-{beta}-treated human liver organoids, several scoring miRNAs, including miR-125a-5p and miR-193b-5p, were directionally responsive to profibrotic stimulation. ConclusionsCirculating sEVs carry a liver-associated molecular cargo that can be leveraged for the non-invasive prediction of FALD severity. The FES provides a biologically validated scoring system that substantially outperforms existing serological indices and offers a new avenue for early detection and risk stratification of FALD Novelty and SignificanceO_ST_ABSWhat is Known?C_ST_ABSO_LIFontan-associated liver disease (FALD) is a nearly universal consequence of the Fontan circulation, driven by chronic venous hypertension and reduced cardiac output. C_LIO_LICurrent surveillance tools, including transaminases, composite serological indices (APRI, FIB-4), and elastography, have limited sensitivity and specificity for detecting and staging hepatic fibrosis in the Fontan population. C_LIO_LICirculating small extracellular vesicles (sEVs) carry tissue-derived molecular cargo and have shown diagnostic potential in other liver diseases, but their utility in FALD has not been explored. C_LI What New Information Does This Article Contribute?O_LIMulti-omic profiling of circulating sEVs in a translational ovine Fontan model reveals that the small RNA cargo is stratified by fibrotic status and enriched for inflammatory pathways associated with hepatic stellate cell activation. C_LIO_LIThe Fontan EV Score (FES), integrating time post-surgery with eleven circulating small RNA biomarkers, predicts FALD severity with substantially greater accuracy than APRI and FIB-4. C_LIO_LITGF-{beta}-treated human liver organoids confirm that several FES-associated miRNAs are directly responsive to profibrotic stimulation, providing biological validation independent of Fontan hemodynamics. C_LI This study demonstrates that circulating sEVs function as non-invasive reporters of hepatic fibrogenesis in the Fontan circulation and introduces the first EV-based scoring system for FALD risk stratification. The FES achieved an AUC of 0.876 for moderate and 0.963 for severe fibrosis in an independent test cohort, outperforming established serological indices that were originally developed for viral hepatitis but which perform poorly in congestive hepatopathy. By combining molecular biomarker discovery with in vitro functional validation, this work establishes a foundation for developing targeted, non-invasive diagnostics to guide surveillance and clinical decision-making in the growing Fontan patient population.

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Artificially sweetened beverage intake and risk of liver-related adverse events in individuals with MASLD: A prospective UK Biobank cohort study

xu, n.; Lin, J.; Liu, L.; Zhu, S.; Li, R.; Zhu, J.; Xu, C.

2026-07-08 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.07.04.26357265 medRxiv
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Purpose Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a major cause of chronic liver disease and liver-related morbidity worldwide. Although dietary factors may influence MASLD progression, the long-term liver-specific implications of artificially sweetened beverage (ASB) intake remain unclear. We aimed to examine the association between ASB intake and the risk of liver-related adverse events and liver-related death among individuals with MASLD. Methods This prospective cohort study included 50,562 participants with MASLD from the UK Biobank. ASB intake was assessed using 24-hour dietary recalls and categorized as 0, >0-1, and >1 serving/day. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for liver-related adverse events and liver-related death. Restricted cubic spline models were used to assess dose-response patterns, and competing-risk analyses were performed by treating liver-related death as a competing event for liver-related adverse events. Additional substitution, subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the findings. Results During a median follow-up of 12.8 years, 292 liver-related adverse events and 91 liver-related deaths occurred. Compared with participants reporting no ASB intake, those consuming >1 serving/day had a higher risk of liver-related adverse events in the fully adjusted model (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02-1.93; P = 0.039), whereas the association for >0-1 serving/day was not statistically significant (HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.92-1.71; P = 0.149). The risk of liver-related adverse events increased across ASB intake categories (P for trend = 0.023). Restricted cubic spline analysis indicated a positive linear association between ASB intake and liver-related adverse events (P-overall <0.001; P-nonlinearity = 0.72). In competing-risk analysis, the association for >1 serving/day remained consistent after accounting for liver-related death as a competing event (sub-HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02-1.93; P = 0.038; Gray test P = 0.006). The association was robust in sensitivity analyses. ASB intake was not significantly associated with liver-related death, and beverage substitution analyses showed no significant associations. Conclusion Among individuals with MASLD, high ASB intake, particularly >1 serving/day, was associated with an increased risk of liver-related adverse events, but not liver-related death. This association was consistent across dose-response, competing-risk, and sensitivity analyses, suggesting that high ASB intake may represent a potential dietary risk marker for adverse liver outcomes in MASLD.

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Adenosine A2B Receptor Activation: A Novel Therapeutic Strategy for Accelerating Liver Recovery After Acetaminophen Overdose

Sanchez-Guerrero, G.; Umbaugh, D.; Nguyen, N.; Jaeschke, H.; Ramachandran, A.

2026-07-03 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.06.29.735109 medRxiv
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An acetaminophen (APAP) overdose is the leading cause of drug-induced hepatotoxicity and acute liver failure (ALF) in the United States. While N-acetylcysteine (NAC), is highly effective when administered early after an overdose, its efficacy decreases with delayed administration. Since most patients present late to the clinic, there is an urgent need for novel late-acting therapeutic options to prevent progression to ALF. We previously demonstrated the benefit of delayed activation of the Adenosine A2B Receptor (A2BAR) in attenuating APAP-induced hepatotoxicity and this study focuses on its effects on liver recovery after injury. Fasted male C57BL/6J mice were treated with 300 mg/kg APAP, followed by activation of A2BAR 6 or 9 h later and sacrifice 24, 48 or 72 h post-APAP with evaluation of liver injury, the innate immune response and liver regeneration. Delayed activation of A2BAR significantly enhanced liver recovery, with accelerated repopulation of the liver by Kupffer cells, increased macrophage migration to the necrotic areas and their faster resolution. A2BAR activation also upregulated lipid metabolism related genes in non-parenchymal cells and cell proliferation and metabolism genes in hepatocytes. Remarkably, genes such as Cidec and Plin2, crucial for lipid droplet formation, were upregulated, indicating that A2ABR activation enhances lipid metabolism which plays a key role in providing energy for liver regeneration. Overall, these findings highlight the potential of A2BAR activation not only in protecting against liver injury, but also in promoting and accelerating liver regeneration by modulating the innate immune responses and metabolic pathways.

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High regeneration-associated stress defines a distinct HCC subgroup with therapeutically exploitable vulnerabilities

Desboeufs, N.; Leary, P.; Zhao, C.; Kollar, S.; Chan, L. K.; Planas-Paz, L.; Fitsche, A.; Schmidt, A.; Prutek, F.; Baumann, K. R.; Schneebeli, S.; Dettwiler, S.; Dona, F.; Akpinar, R.; Terracciano, L. M.; Piscuoglio, S.; Di Tommaso, L.; Wild, K.; Summermatter, L.; Kobe, A.; Puippe, G. D.; Leblond, A.-L.; Endhardt, K.; Ng, C. K. Y.; Nuciforo, S.; Heim, M. H.; Fritsch, R.; Pauli, C.; Kremer, A. E.; Lopes, M.; Weber, A.

2026-08-20 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.08.19.745832 medRxiv
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Background: To date, no precision oncology approach has been established for HCC. Despite the diverse underlying causes, HCC development exhibits a uniform pathophysiology characterised by chronic hyper-proliferation, resulting from hepatocyte apoptosis and compensatory liver regeneration. This chronic hyper-proliferative pressure, termed regeneration stress, drives genomic instability during HCC onset, yet its therapeutic potential remains poorly explored. This study aimed to identify targetable vulnerabilities tied to regeneration stress and establish clinically applicable markers for treatment stratification. Methods: Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was applied on external bulk RNA-seq datasets to define a LIVer REgeneration Stress Signature (LIVRESS). The signature was functionally validated using HCC patient-derived organoids (HCC-Org), and vulnerabilities were mapped using mid-throughput drug screening, single-molecule and single-cell assays, and multi-omic integration. Results: High LIVRESS scores, characterised by enrichment in replication, mitotic and DNA damage repair pathways, identified a subset of HCC patients with aggressive disease and poorer survival across aetiologies. HCC-Org with high LIVRESS scores displayed exquisite sensitivity to multiple inhibitors of the checkpoint kinase ATR. Although HCC-Org models exhibited a baseline reduction in replication fork speed, sensitivity to ATR inhibitor (ATRi) was decoupled from replication fork dynamics and rather linked to intrinsic mitotic instability. ATR inhibition triggers mitotic failure and apoptosis in LIVRESSHigh HCC-Org. This killing effect was significantly potentiated by combining ATRi with PARPi or WEE1i. Multi-omic integration identified KPNA2 as a surrogate biomarker of ATRi sensitivity. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate that a subset of HCC-Org, characterised by high liver regeneration-associated stress, is vulnerable to ATRi-based therapies. By focusing on a comprehensive regenerative stress model, we establish a framework to stratify HCC patients and implement biomarker-driven, ATR-based therapies for HCC patients with advanced disease. Impact and implications: Regeneration stress is a key factor that drives genomic instability in HCC, providing a basis for the LIVRESS to identify patients dependent on ATR-mediated checkpoints. These findings reveal a conceptual shift for researchers and trialists: ATRi efficacy is decoupled from replication fork dynamics and instead leverages mitotic fragility. Practically, the LIVRESS and its IHC surrogate marker (KPNA2) offer a scalable roadmap for physicians to improve patient stratification in ATRi-based precision oncology trials. While requiring prospective validation, these results pave the way toward biomarker-driven therapies for advanced HCC.

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Orthogonal CRISPR screens and human liver chimeric mice identify hepatitis B virus host factors

Freije, C. A.; Dangas, G.; Athanasiadis, A.; Moschogianni, E.; Sanders, M. K.; Depieri Cataneo, A. H.; Boehm, C. K.; Bousali, M.; Li, D.-Y.; Lee, S.; Cornelis, G.; Lo, G.; Soriaga, L. B.; Telenti, A.; di Iulio, J.; Mosimann, A.; Bordignon, J.; Karver, K.; Fu, L.; Levenson, K. C.; Zou, C.; Zhou, Y.; Quirk, C.; Seifert, L. L.; Hong, X.; Rajesh, A.; Yu, Y.; Puschnik, A. S.; Lempp, F. A.; Virgin, H. W.; Hwang, S.; Schneider, W. M.; de Jong, Y. P.; Rice, C. M.; Michailidis, E.

2026-07-24 microbiology 10.64898/2026.07.23.740386 medRxiv
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Hepatitis B virus (HBV) chronically infects approximately 250 million people worldwide, and reliable curative therapies are lacking. A broader understanding of viral-host interactions could accelerate efforts to find new host-centric therapeutic targets. However, inefficient cell culture systems and limited replication markers compatible with pooled screening have precluded the widespread use of genetic perturbation screens. Here, we performed the first pooled, genome-wide CRISPR-Cas9 knockout (KO) screen with authentic HBV infection and integrated these results with two orthogonal pooled screens to identify host factors. We selected 72 genes for a multi-step assessment that included arrayed validation assays using both HBV infection and pgRNA transfection. We then independently tested thirteen genes using high-efficiency bulk KO experiments to guide further investigations of both antiviral and proviral factors. In both KO and siRNA-mediated knockdown experiments, depletion of the top antiviral factor, EXOC1, enhanced multiple HBV replication markers, and transcriptomic analysis revealed activation of hypoxia- and HIF-1 gene signatures. Three proviral factors, IRF2, WDR48, and ZCCHC14, were investigated in vivo using a human liver chimeric mouse model, which demonstrated that ZCCHC14 KO greatly reduced HBV replication and spread. Together, these complementary in vitro and in vivo platforms expand the catalog of HBV host factors and provide a scalable framework for host target discovery.

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Hepatic huntingtin loss drives an acute phase response and liver injury in multiple mouse models

Samstag, C. L.; Bragg, R. M.; Neumann, K.; Mathews, E. W.; Lam, K.; Wu, C. C.; Marchionini, D.; MacCoss, M. J.; Raftery, D.; Carroll, J. B.

2026-07-29 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.07.28.741358 medRxiv
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Multiple therapeutic strategies are being developed to slow Huntingtons disease (HD) progression through targeted reduction of huntingtin (HTT) protein or mRNA. Despite HTTs discovery over 30 years ago, its cellular functions remain incompletely understood, and the long-term consequences of HTT-lowering therapies remain unclear. We previously demonstrated that hepatic HTT loss in mice disrupts hepatocyte zonation and metabolism. Here, we investigate the physiological consequences of hepatic Htt loss. Across multiple models of Htt loss--including ubiquitous and hepatocyte-specific genetic knockouts and a therapeutically relevant Htt-targeting siRNA--there was elevated expression of IL-6/STAT3-driven acute phase response genes. Single-nucleus RNA sequencing reveals a zonal pattern of hepatocyte stress, most highly upregulated in pericentral hepatocytes, and identifies a distinct pericentral cluster of stressed hepatocytes that was enriched [~]9.6-fold following Htt knockout. Histological examination reveals that Htt loss results in increased hepatic pathology, including hepatic intranuclear inclusions, apoptosis, and necrosis, as well as prevalence of granulomas. Transcriptomic analysis reveals significant upregulation of metallothionein genes following Htt loss, as confirmed by elevated plasma metallothionein-1 (MT1) levels in knockout mice. These findings underscore important safety considerations for HTT-lowering therapies and suggest candidate biomarkers for monitoring hepatic off-target effects in clinical trials.

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Hepatitis C Virus Remodels Lipid Droplets to Promote Mitochondrial Fatty Acid Accumulation and Metabolic Activation

Muhammad, I.; Craft, K.; Pei, S.; Cont, K.; Li, J.; Teng, S.; Cruz-Cosme, R.; Yang, S.; Zhang, Y.-J.; Tang, Q.

2026-07-10 microbiology 10.64898/2026.07.09.737644 medRxiv
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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) depends on host lipid metabolism and lipid droplets (LDs) for genome replication, assembly, and particle production, yet how LD structure and lipid utilization change over the course of infection remains incompletely understood. Here, we investigated the temporal remodeling of LD-associated metabolic pathways during HCV JFH-1 infection of human hepatoma Huh7 cells. HCV infection transiently increased LD fluorescence intensity at 24 hours post-infection (hpi), followed by normalization or relative loss of LD signal at later time points. Concomitantly, LDs became progressively clustered and enlargement during late infection, despite reduced protein levels of the canonical LD fusion proteins CIDEA, CIDEB, and CIDEC, suggesting that HCV-induced LD enlargement occurs through CIDE-independent mechanisms. Transcriptomic, RT-qPCR, and immunoblot analyses revealed time-dependent regulation of genes and proteins involved in LD structure, triglyceride synthesis, lipolysis, lipid uptake, and mitochondrial fatty acid utilization. Subcellular fractionation demonstrated preferential accumulation of fatty acids in mitochondrial fractions at 24-72 hpi. This redistribution was accompanied by increased oxygen consumption rate, elevated extracellular acidification, and progressive reactive oxygen species accumulation, indicating infection-associated metabolic activation and oxidative stress. Pharmacological inhibition of DGAT1-dependent LD biogenesis, LIPA-dependent lysosomal lipid hydrolysis, LIPE/HSL-dependent lipolysis, or CPT1-dependent mitochondrial fatty acid transport markedly reduced mitochondrial fatty acid accumulation and suppressed HCV-induced respiratory activity. Inhibition of LIPA or LIPE/HSL reduced both HCV RNA and core protein levels, whereas inhibition of CPT1 or DGAT1 had more pronounced effects on core protein than on viral RNA. Together, these findings support a model in which HCV dynamically remodels LDs, mobilizes LD-associated fatty acids, and redirects them toward mitochondria to support infection-associated metabolism and downstream stages of the viral life cycle. Lipid hydrolysis and mitochondrial fatty acid trafficking therefore represent potential host-directed targets for limiting HCV infection. SIGNIFIGANCEHepatitis C virus depends on host lipid metabolism for replication, assembly, and production of infectious particles, but how it uses lipid droplets over time remains incompletely understood. This study shows that hepatitis C virus dynamically remodels lipid droplets, causing an early increase in lipid storage followed by droplet enlargement and mobilization of fatty acids during later infection. The released fatty acids preferentially accumulate in mitochondria, where they are associated with increased cellular respiration and oxidative stress. Blocking lipid droplet formation, lipid breakdown, or fatty acid transport to mitochondria reduced this metabolic response and decreased viral RNA or core protein accumulation. Inhibition of lysosomal acid lipase and hormone-sensitive lipase suppressed both viral RNA and protein levels. These findings identify lipid droplet breakdown and mitochondrial fatty acid trafficking as important host processes used by hepatitis C virus and as potential targets for host-directed antiviral intervention.

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Projected burden of alcohol-associated liver disease in China, 2020-2050: A microsimulation modeling study

Niu, Q.; Su, M.; Liang, L.; Che, Z.; Zhu, Q.; Wang, F.; Xiao, J.

2026-08-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.19.26360748 medRxiv
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Background Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) has emerged as a major cause of chronic liver disease and liver-related mortality in China. This study aimed to project the future burden of ALD in Chinese adults from 2020 to 2050, including prevalence of ALD, number of alcoholic steatohepatitis (ASH) cases, incident hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, liver transplantation (LT) demand, liver-related deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods We developed an agent-based state-transition microsimulation model with yearly cycles and a lifetime horizon. The model simulated 5,678,912 representative Chinese adults (mean age 36.2 years, 51.2% male). Health states included no steatosis, alcohol-associated steatotic liver, ASH, fibrosis stages F0-F4, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, LT, and liver-related death. Model inputs were derived from the China Kadoorie Biobank, Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, China's national surveys, published meta-analyses, and transplant registry data. Projections incorporated demographic shifts, alcohol consumption trends, and calibrated transition probabilities. Uncertainty was assessed via 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations generating 95% uncertainty intervals. Results ALD prevalence was projected to increase from 4.8% (55 million individuals) in 2020 to 8.5% (94 million individuals) by 2050. ASH cases rose from approximately 18 million to 20 million. Annual incident HCC cases nearly doubled from 20,500 in 2020-2025 to 45,200 by 2046-2050. LT demand quadrupled from 2,300 to 9,800 cases. Liver-related deaths increased from 50,000 in 2020 to 85,000 in 2050, while DALYs rose from 1.5 million to 2.6 million. Conclusions In the absence of strengthened alcohol control policies, ALD will impose a substantial and growing burden on China's health system by 2050, with marked increases in HCC incidence, LT demand, and liver-related mortality.